U.S. Treasury Bonds Collapse: Three Moves Investors Must Make To Protect Their Wealth

by Martin Hutchinson


The U.S. Federal Reserve has been buying U.S. Treasury bonds at a rate of about $75 billion a month. That's part of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's "QE2" program, under which the central bank was to buy $600 billion of the government bonds.

But QE2 has officially ended, meaning the Fed will no longer be a big buyer of Treasury bonds.

And now the U.S. Treasury needs to sell twice as many Treasury bonds to end investors.

But the problem is, who's going to buy them?

Not China, which is diversifying its trillions in assets to get as far away from the U.S. dollar as fast as it can.

Not Japan, which is trying to rebound from a massive earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster - and is focusing all its spending on reconstruction.

And - as we've seen - the Bernanke-led Fed isn't jumping back into the bond market.

I'm telling you right now: We are headed for an epic bond market crash. If you don't know about it, or don't care, you could get clobbered.

But if you do know, and are willing to take steps now, you can easily protect yourself - and even turn a nice profit in the process.

A Timetable for the Coming Crash

I'm an old bond-market hand myself - my experience dates back to my days at the British merchant bank Hill Samuel in the 1970s - so I see all the signs of what's to come.

Having the two biggest external customers of U.S. debt largely out of the market is a huge problem. Unfortunately, those aren't the only challenges the market faces. The challenges just get bigger from there - which is why I'm predicting a bond market crash.

Steadily rising inflation is one of those challenges. Inflation is a huge threat to the bond markets, and is almost certain to create a whipping turbulence that will ultimately infect the stocks markets, too.

Many pundits will tell you that if investor demand for bonds declines, and investor fear of inflation increases, bond-market yields could increase in an orderly fashion.

But I can tell you that the bond markets don't work like that. Price declines affect existing bonds as well as new ones, so the value of every investor's bond holdings declines. And with many of those investors heavily leveraged - especially at the major international banks - the sight of year-end bonuses disappearing down the Swanee River as bonds are "marked to market" will cause a panic. That's especially true when end-of-quarter or end-of-year reporting periods loom.

That's why we can expect a bond market crash, and most likely it will come in September or December - at the end of a quarter or fiscal year.


One sad - even scary - fact about the looming bond market crash is that Fed Chairman Bernanke won't be able to do much about it ... though he'll certain try.

Consumer price inflation is now running at 3.6% year-on-year while producer price inflation is running at 7.2%. In that kind of environment, a 10-year Treasury bond yielding 3% is no longer economically attractive. Since monetary conditions worldwide remain very loose, inflation in the U.S. and worldwide will trend up, not down.

The bottom line: At some point, the "value proposition" offered to Treasury bond investors will become impossibly unattractive. When that happens, expect a rush to the exits.

If Bernanke attempts "QE3" - a third round of "quantitative easing" - he will have a problem. If other investors head for the exits, Bernanke may find that the U.S. central bank is as jammed up as the European Central Bank (ECB) currently is with Greek debt: Both will end up as the suckers that are taking all the rubbish off everyone else's books.

There's a limit to how much Treasury paper even Bernanke thinks he can buy. And if everyone else is selling, that "limit" won't be high enough to save the bond market.

With Bernanke buying at a rapid rate, the inflationary forces will be even stronger, and each monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report on price indices will cause another massive swoon in the Treasury bond market.

Eventually, there has to be a new head of the Fed - a Paul A. Volcker 2.0 who is truly committed to conquering inflation. Alas, it won't be Volcker himself since, at 84, he is probably too old.

But it might be John B. Taylor, who invented the "Taylor Rule" for Fed policy. The Taylor Rule is a pretty soggy guide for running a monetary system. But it's been flashing bright red signals about the current Fed's monetary policy since 2008.

However, since a Fed chairman who is actually serious about fighting inflation would be a huge burden for current U.S. President Barack Obama to bear - and could badly hamper his chances for re-election, any such appointment is unlikely before November 2012.

How to Profit From the Bond Market Crash

Given that reality, it's likely that Bernanke will attack any bond market crash that occurs ahead of the presidential election just by printing more money; there won't be any serious attempt to fix the fundamental problem, meaning inflation will continue to rise.

For you as an investor, this insight leads to two conclusions that you can put to work to your advantage.

The coming economic atmosphere will be:

1. Very good for gold and other hard assets. 
2. Challenging for Treasury bonds - prices will remain weak no matter how vigorously Bernanke attempts to support them.

So what should you do with this knowledge? I have four recommendations.

First and foremost, if Bernanke were not around, I would expect gold prices to fall following a bond market crash. But since he's still at the helm at the Fed, I expect him to do "QE3" in the event of a crash. And that means gold - not Treasury bonds - would become an investor "safe haven."

You can expect gold prices to zoom up, peaking at a much higher level around the time Bernanke is finally replaced. Silver will also follow this trend. So buy substantial holdings of either physical gold and silver.


There is is folks, in a nutshell: IF YOU ARE NOT BUYING GOLD AND SILVER EXPECT YOUR DOLLAR TO CONTINUE TO BE WORTH LESS AND LESS IN THE COMING MONTHS! REMEMBER, IT'S YOUR MONEY AT RISK!!!!


If you need help finding good buys in GOLD or SILVER just e-mail me 
busby.ronnie@yahoo.com


Thanks in advance,
Ronnie Busby